China's robot makers race to turn exhibition-floor machines into viable businesses
Chinese robotics companies are pushing their machines from exhibition floors into homes and factories, but face major hurdles in reliability, real-world data collection and commercial scalability. Industry leaders say the sector is still waiting for its 'ChatGPT moment', which may be two to three ye
At the World Robot Conference in Beijing last week, Chinese companies showed off robots that could arrange flowers, cross rough terrain for industrial inspections, and even play instruments as a band. But the displays also underscored the gap between exhibition-floor demonstrations and the real-world environments where these machines must eventually work.
Tasks that humans find simple — opening a bag of chips or taking out the trash — can take a robot considerably longer. Shenzhen-based X Square Robot is sending its machines into people's homes alongside cleaners to tidy shoes and organise children's toys, but the robots operate entirely outside the company's direct control. "They may encounter all kinds of unexpected tasks, so we need them to respond very flexibly to whatever comes up," said Xu Menghong, the company's director of strategy and investment.
Another Shenzhen firm, Lumos Robotics, has deployed robots for quality inspection and material handling. Its machines currently work at roughly the same pace as human workers, and getting them to work faster and at greater scale will take time, the company says. Unlike an AI chatbot, which can be trained on vast amounts of text available online, a robot needs data from physical-world interactions. "We need to collect more real-world data," said Yu Chao, founder and CEO of Lumos Robotics.
For component suppliers such as Kinco Automation, the industry's shift towards commercial applications is changing what customers demand. Xu Ji, the company's humanoid robot marketing manager, said suppliers are now focused on "mass-production consistency, delivery times and quality control" as demand begins to converge.
Industry leaders acknowledge that robots have yet to reach their "ChatGPT moment". Wang Xingxing, founder of Hangzhou-based Unitree Robotics, has said such a breakthrough — when a robot can enter an unfamiliar environment and reliably carry out most tasks — could still be two to three years away. Shares in Unitree closed 460 per cent above the offer price in its Shanghai debut on Aug 19, though they have since fallen about 45 per cent from their peak, raising questions about whether investor enthusiasm has run ahead of the business itself.
With more Chinese robot makers eyeing public listings, analysts say the boom could eventually produce a shakeout. "When you have more than 100 humanoid robot companies, and valuations are reaching tens of billions of yuan … the question is: how do you deliver on those expectations for investors?" said Ethan Qi, associate director at technology market research firm Counterpoint Research.
Robot makers will also need to convince ordinary consumers that their machines are useful in daily life. At the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, which ended on Wednesday (Aug 26), robots raced, fought and performed routines — with plenty of crashes and falls. Morgan Stanley in June estimated that China's humanoid robot market would grow from about US$2 billion in 2026 to US$15 billion by 2030, with annual shipments reaching 446,000 units by then. But getting there will depend on turning today's investment and excitement into robots that people and businesses actually want — and can use at scale.
