World Bank lifts Vietnam’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.4% on manufacturing, AI exports
The World Bank has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.4%, citing strong manufacturing and exports of high-tech and AI-related products. The upgrade positions Vietnam as one of the top performers in the East Asia and Pacific region, though inflation is projected to average 4.2%.
The World Bank has upgraded Vietnam’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 7.4 per cent, reflecting robust performance in manufacturing and exports, particularly of high-tech and artificial intelligence (AI)-related products. The latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, released on Tuesday, said growth was expected to remain strong this year before moderating slightly to 7.3 per cent in both 2027 and 2028.
The upgrade puts Vietnam among the stronger performers in the region, which as a whole is projected to grow 4.5 per cent in 2026. Malaysia and Thailand are forecast to see economic growths of 5.1 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. The World Bank expects the trend to be supported by increased domestic stimulus from structural reforms and expanded public investment.
However, inflationary pressures are expected to remain a concern. Consumer price inflation in Vietnam is projected to average 4.2 per cent in 2026, driven mainly by higher fuel, housing and utility costs.
The report highlighted Vietnam’s growing adoption of AI, noting that the regional pace and scale of adoption remain uneven across developing economies. Among emerging-market and developing economies, Malaysia and Vietnam recorded the highest levels of individual generative AI use in early 2026.
In Vietnam, AI applications are already being used in a range of practical areas, including an AI coach tailored to Vietnamese speakers for language learning, AI-powered medical imaging for under-resourced hospitals, and dynamic pricing and promotional visuals for small hotels and tour operators. The World Bank said these examples illustrate the potential of what it calls “Small AI”—the adoption or adaptation of existing AI tools for specific local needs rather than developing costly frontier models.
But the report warned that AI adoption alone would not be enough to deliver broad-based productivity gains. Businesses face constraints including skills shortages, high adoption costs and concerns over security and data privacy. Demand for AI-related skills in emerging and developing economies in the region remains relatively low compared with other emerging markets, pointing to the need for stronger investment in skills and education.
The World Bank said governments should create an enabling environment for AI adoption by improving digital and energy infrastructure, access to capital and skills, while also using AI themselves to improve public services. Reliable electricity and sound governance are also important for attracting investment in data centers, and Southeast Asian economies could benefit from opportunities in semiconductor manufacturing and other parts of the AI value chain.
