Thai residential transfers to slow to 1-2% growth in H2 after Q2 rush

Nationwide residential transfers in Thailand are expected to grow by only 1-2% this year, despite double-digit growth in the second quarter. The slowdown follows a rush of buyers accelerating transfers ahead of the original June expiry of cuts to property fees.

Nationwide residential transfers in Thailand are expected to grow by only 1-2% this year, despite double-digit growth in the second quarter, as buyers accelerated transfers ahead of the original June expiry of cuts to property fees.

The forecast marks a sharp deceleration from the double-digit growth recorded in Q2, when market activity was boosted by purchasers rushing to complete transactions before the scheduled end of fee reductions. The government had originally set the fee cuts to expire in June, prompting a wave of accelerated deals.

Industry analysts noted that the pull-forward effect has largely exhausted demand that would have otherwise been spread across the second half of the year. Without the stimulus of reduced fees, transfer volumes are expected to normalise at a much lower pace in the coming months.

The slowing momentum comes despite ongoing government support measures aimed at sustaining the property market. However, the expiry of the most impactful incentive has left the sector reliant on underlying demand, which remains constrained by elevated household debt and cautious bank lending.

Developers are now adjusting their launch plans for the second half, with many opting to focus on affordable segments where demand is more resilient. The luxury and high-end markets are expected to see more limited activity as buyers take a wait-and-see approach.