Chinese runway work on Antelope Reef could finish by mid-2027, analysts say

Satellite images show grading, gravel and compaction cranes on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, indicating a full-scale runway is under construction. Analysts estimate completion by mid-2027, which would mark China's most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade.

Chinese construction of a runway on Antelope Reef (Lingyang Reef) in the Paracel Islands is well under way, with analysts estimating it could be completed by the middle of next year, strengthening Beijing's military control over the disputed South China Sea.

Satellite images reviewed by Reuters show grading work, piles of gravel and concrete, and compaction cranes in operation to build a full-scale runway that military attaches and security analysts say could be one of China's most important offshore bases in the region. The images, taken last Friday by commercial satellite imagery provider Vantor, also show a fully loaded gravel barge heading to a newly built wharf.

A completed base at Antelope would be China's most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, extending the reach of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft in a waterway that is an increasingly militarised arena of competition between Beijing and the US and its allies over Taiwan.

“If Fiery Cross [Yongshu Reef] is the guide, I'd expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier,” said Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker, referring to a 3km runway built on a reef in the disputed Spratly Islands further south in 2015. “They've had 10 years to get faster at this,” he said. Lewis said he had yet to note signs of excavation for possible ammunition and fuel storage, which a base of this scale would need.

The Chinese Ministry of National Defense did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. China has yet to acknowledge construction of a new military base, while state media have said Antelope would serve civilian needs, such as weather forecasting and maritime and scientific research.

Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon, who first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January, also described the cranes as ones used to compact reclaimed or loose earth into foundations before paving. In the northern part of the South China Sea, a future Antelope base would help extend deployments of a wide range of Chinese naval ships and military aircraft and help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China keeps its nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.

Reuters reported in late August that new installations have been sighted on a smaller islet near Antelope, but analysts have yet to gauge definitively the likely function of the three-pronged construction on Yagong Island. The entire Paracels is also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. Taiwan's defense and foreign ministries, as well as Vietnam's foreign ministry, did not immediately respond to Reuters' questions.