Trump's Russian diesel waiver and energy ceasefire leave Ukraine more vulnerable
US President Donald Trump has granted a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel imports and declared an energy ceasefire that Russia has not confirmed. War studies lecturer Samir Puri argues these moves pressure Kyiv more than Moscow, weakening Ukraine's position as it faces winter blackouts and potenti
UNITED STATES President Donald Trump has blindsided Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy twice in almost as many days: First on 9 Oct, when Mr Trump permitted Russian diesel imports into the US under a sanctions waiver running until April 2027. Then on 11 Oct, when he declared that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to cease attacking each other’s energy infrastructure, which neither has confirmed.
Mr Trump’s U-turn on Russian diesel comes only three weeks after he signed a new law that authorises tariffs of up to 100 per cent on the top purchasers of Russian energy. With midterm elections looming, many US consumers grappling with rising fuel prices blame this on Mr Trump’s ongoing war against Iran. For Mr Trump to now blame the diesel shortfall on Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian refineries – and to suggest the solution is Russian diesel – amounts to theatrical misdirection, says Dr Samir Puri, Visiting Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London.
Energy analysts point out that Mr Trump’s gambit is unlikely to significantly reduce diesel prices. Russian diesel exports are a small fraction of US domestic demand: By one estimate, Russia can release over 2 million barrels in October, but US consumers use around 3.6 million barrels per day. Moreover, it can take weeks for Russian shipments to reach the US’ east coast, and Russia may struggle to increase supply in November and December due to damage its refineries sustained from Ukrainian attacks.
For Russia, the diplomatic gain may be more significant than any additional revenue. Mr Trump has often shown more willingness to apply pressure on Ukraine than Russia. Not only has he unilaterally eased pressure on Russia, but it seems he has done so without making meaningful progress on fostering negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. To further deflect attention, Mr Trump also called on Ukraine to “get a new president” who could come to an agreement with President Vladimir Putin.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham and other European leaders have reiterated their solidarity with the Ukrainian president and agreed that the suspension of elections in Ukraine is permissible due to wartime conditions. On 11 Oct, Mr Zelenskyy offered to hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire, something Russia promptly refused.
Ukraine officially continues to reject a deal to end the war on Mr Putin’s terms. There is some credence to this optimism, based on its ability to successfully defend its front line in the Donbas while continuing to launch strikes against targets in Russia. In a rare admission, Mr Putin admitted that Russia has lost about 1 per cent of GDP because of Ukrainian attacks on refineries.
However, the grim reality facing Ukraine is that simply staying in the fight does not increase its chances of securing a favourable outcome. First, Mr Trump has the goal of stopping Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and US officials have reportedly threatened to limit or cease intelligence sharing with Ukraine if it does not comply. Second, Ukraine’s comparatively smaller size leaves it more vulnerable to wartime attrition, hastened by Russia’s renewed targeting of Ukrainian railway hubs and warehouses. Third, Russia’s occupation of 80 per cent of Ukraine’s coastline imperils its sea exports from Odessa and smaller ports, leaving it dependent on foreign financial assistance. On the current trajectory, and assuming Mr Trump continues to pressure Kyiv more than Moscow, Ukraine will enter 2027 arguably in its most weakened position since the earliest days of the all-out invasion.
